This morning PCAST, the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, released a new report assessing the Obama Administration’s preparations for this fall’s expected resurgence of H1N1 and outlining key steps government can take in the coming weeks and months to minimize the flu’s impact on the country. The report said the Administration’s preparation has been thorough and scientifically-based, and laid out predictions as best it could.
From the release:
The report concludes that the 2009-H1N1 flu is unlikely to resemble the deadly flu pandemic of 1918-19. But in contrast to the benign version of swine flu that emerged in 1976, the report says the current strain "poses a serious health threat" to the nation. The issue is not that the virus is more deadly than other flu strains, but rather that it is likely to infect more people than usual because it is a new strain against which few people have immunity. This could mean that doctors’ offices and hospitals may get filled to capacity.
Among the group’s prime recommendations: accelerate the preparation of flu vaccine for distribution to high-risk individuals; clarify guidelines for the use of antiviral medicines; upgrade the current system for tracking the pandemic’s progress and making resource allocation decisions; accelerate the development of communication strategies—including Web-based social networking tools—to broadcast public health messages that can help mitigate the pandemic’s impact; and identify a White House point person with primary authority to coordinate key decisions across the government as the pandemic evolves. An overarching message of the new report is that through their behavior, individuals can have a potentially big impact on the flu season’s severity. Frequent hand-washing and staying home from school or work when sick will be crucial. The report recommends intensive public education campaigns to reinforce those key behaviors, and also calls for policy adjustments that can reduce economic and other incentives that might encourage people to risk infecting others.
For example, workplaces could liberalize rules for absenteeism so employees don’t feel pressured to come to work when sick and school districts could arrange alternative means of distributing lunches to children who are sick but who normally depend on school meals for adequate nourishment.
Additional comment by Dr. David F. Duncan
Seasonal influenza already kills an estimated 36,000 Americans every year and puts 200,000 into the hospital. Typically, between 5 and 20 percent of the population gets the flu each year.
Because the H1N1 virus is new, more people are susceptible to it and the World Health Organization has been predicting for months now that a third of the world's population, or 2 billion people, will likely become infected.
Pandemic H1N1 is already circulating widely and experts expect it to increase as students return to school. The council's report says the virus, although moderate, could infect 30 percent to 50 percent of the U.S. population this year, put 1.8 million into the hospital and kill anywhere between 30,000 and 90,000 people. These estimates reflect various models published since H5N1 avian influenza emerged as a pandemic threat in 2003 and are based on previous flu pandemics, not on anything unique about the H1N1 virus.
Most experts agree that people will need two doses of the vaccine, delivered at least two weeks apart, to develop full immunity to H1N1. This means that we need to implement any vaccine program at least two weeks in advance of the onset of this year's flu season. Time is rapidly running out. This report emphasizes the urgency of taking action quickly.
You may read the PCAST recommendations or the full report on the Whitehouse.gov website.
